The Conservatives, once a dominant force in British politics and home to figures like Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher, and Benjamin Disraeli, conclude their annual conference on Wednesday amid existential challenges.
Known as the Tories, they are struggling in polls and face competition from the hard-right Reform UK party.
“It’s existential,” said political scientist Robert Ford, referring to the crisis facing the UK’s oldest political party, established in the 1830s.
“Based on current numbers, Conservative MPs could fit into a small coach post next election,” added the University of Manchester professor.
The Tories have historically governed Britain for extended periods, including 18 years from 1979 to 1997 and 14 years from 2010 to 2024.
They’ve won more general elections and produced more prime ministers than any other modern UK political party, adapting to the public mood effectively.
However, the 2016 Brexit referendum caused an unprecedented decline, leading to then-Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation and intense internal conflict.
Since then, the party has cycled through four leaders, including Boris Johnson, who resigned amid scandals, and Liz Truss, who quit after a failed budget, until being ousted in July last year.
“They’ve only got themselves to blame,” said Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University of London.
“They failed to deliver on immigration and economic promises, frustrating the public,” he told AFP.
Last year’s election, won by Keir Starmer’s Labour, left the Conservatives with just 121 seats in the 650-seat parliament, their worst general election result ever.
Their situation worsened as the anti-immigrant Reform party, led by Eurosceptic Nigel Farage, gained support at their expense.
Potential Election Disaster?
On Wednesday, leader Kemi Badenoch aims to unite Tories with a keynote speech at their sparsely attended Manchester conference.
She’s pledged that any future Conservative government under her would exit the European Convention on Human Rights and deport 150,000 irregular migrants annually.
However, with polls indicating the next election, expected in 2029, as a showdown between Starmer and Farage, there are doubts about her leadership lasting that long.
The Conservatives have faced significant defeats before, like in 1945 and 1997, yet they always had time to rebuild against Labour—an advantage Reform’s rise denies them now.
“The hole they’re in is far deeper than any in the past century,” said Bale, advising against imitating Reform’s stance on immigration.
Several ex-Tory MPs, a current lawmaker, and many councillors have defected to Reform recently, as surveys predict a near wipeout for the Conservatives in the next election.
A YouGov poll last month indicated that if a general election occurred now, the Conservatives would secure just 45 seats.
This would place them fourth, behind the centrist Liberal Democrats, with Reform nearing a majority with 311 seats.
If such a scenario unfolds, Farage might invite the Tories as junior partners in a coalition government.
Ford believes that while some Conservative MPs and activists might be tempted, they fear “a black widow spider effect.”
“You mate with the larger one and it eats you,” he told AFP.
