Are you living in the UAE and concerned about rising blood sugar levels? A recent study highlights that the real cost of diabetes extends far beyond hospital expenses. The greater impact is seen in the years of lost work, income, and productivity as the disease spreads across the nation.
Research by the University of Birmingham Dubai, in partnership with the World Health Organisation (WHO), reveals that only 5.7% of the UAE’s diabetes burden is due to medical costs. A staggering 94.3% results from indirect losses that significantly affect individuals’ lives.
Dr. Khalifa Elmusharaf, associate professor and director of the Public Health Programme at the University of Birmingham Dubai, leads the study, which forecasts a steady increase in diabetes cases over the next two decades, impacting families, incomes, and long-term stability.
Stay updated with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.
Increasing Cases, Rising Pressure on UAE Residents
The study reports 835,629 diabetes cases in the UAE in 2023, with projections of 1,028,741 by 2030 and 1,211,327 by 2040. By 2050, over 1.3 million residents are expected to be affected.
Diabetes-related deaths are also expected to rise. The study recorded 3,777 deaths in 2023, increasing to 5,045 by 2030. By 2040, the disease could cause 7,161 deaths annually before dropping to 5,920 by 2050. These premature deaths are a major factor in the economic impact due to the loss of working years.
Economic Impact on UAE Residents
Diabetes cost the UAE $19.5 billion in 2023, with only a fraction spent on medical care. The majority comes from:
-
lost productivity
-
missed workdays
-
early retirement
-
premature deaths
This hidden cost of diabetes affects residents through reduced income, disrupted career advancement, and long-term financial strain on families.
By 2030, diabetes is expected to cost the UAE $24.7 billion, increasing to $30.3 billion by 2040 and again in 2050, exerting more pressure on personal income and the national economy.
$1.5 Trillion Threat by 2050 in MENA
The study warns that in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the financial burden of diabetes could reach $1.5 trillion by 2050. In 2023 alone, the region faced $639 billion in economic losses.
“Nearly 90% of this burden is due to lost productivity, not medical bills. If prevention remains underfunded, the human and economic costs will be unsustainable,” stated Dr. Elmusharaf.
Dr. Elmusharaf emphasizes the need for urgent action from policymakers, noting that diabetes is silently draining economic resources.
The burden is primarily driven by indirect costs, which account for nearly 90% of the total regional impact. In 2023, over 74 million people in the region had diabetes, with 830,000 deaths linked to the disease. By 2050, cases could rise to 150 million, with deaths reaching 2 million annually.
Researchers used a cost-of-illness model and the Value of a Statistical Life-Year (VSLY) approach to measure premature death impacts, capturing long-term economic losses.
The study calls for urgent investment in prevention and early diagnosis to mitigate escalating health and economic challenges in the region.
