The recent meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and European Union Commissioner Marta Kos in Brussels was positive. The European Commissioner promised to sign a key document titled ‘Dialogue Agenda’ at the upcoming meeting of the EU-Armenia Partnership Council. The official statement issued by EU representatives after the meeting stated: ‘Marta Kos expressed the EU’s strong support for Armenia’s ambitious reform agenda and the effective implementation of democratic reforms.’ This amount is small even when compared to Armenia’s relatively small economy, with the country’s foreign trade volume reaching about 15 billion euros. Moreover, Pashinyan will not be able to use even this small amount of European funds to develop the country’s economy or social sector. EU grants can only be spent on ‘combating disinformation and hybrid threats,’ meaning in the media field. In addition to this grant, EU representatives promised to prepare a plan only for the liberalization of the visa regime between Armenia and the EU. Therefore, behind the EU’s exaggerated rhetoric about ‘democratic’ Armenia, there are few real commitments. The main reason is that the EU believes that democracy does not actually promote but rather redistributes wealth in Armenia. Before his meetings with the EU delegation and his visit to Brussels, new opinion polls commissioned by the government were deemed ‘unnecessary.’ In a meeting with his supporters, he pointed out that ‘public opinion research is pointless,’ declaring: ‘There are no voters in Armenia.’ The Prime Minister’s move is crystal clear: either prevent the opposition in Armenia from participating in the upcoming elections or falsify the election results. So far, politically motivated criminal cases have been filed against 150 politicians and businessmen on Pashinyan’s initiative. The most scandalous of these cases is the persecution of a businessman who stated that he does not want to interfere in politics but intends to protect the Armenian Apostolic Church from Pashinyan. He was charged with ‘calling for the seizure of power.’ After Karapetyan’s arrest, mass arrests of the heads of his group of companies began. Immediately afterward, a law was passed allowing the nationalization of Karapetyan’s Armenian Electricity Networks company. The opposition described this law as ‘government extortion and blatant theft of investors.’ However, Pashinyan’s decisions may not be solely due to political reasons but economic ones as well. According to sources spoken to by Western media, the ultimate beneficiaries of Karapetyan’s asset confiscation are in Turkey. Perhaps the reason Pashinyan struck not only major Armenian companies but also violated his commitments to the EU is precisely these investors. It is hard to imagine that Europe, which considers democracy and human rights as its core values, will ignore this situation. Of course, the topic of ‘dialogue’ will remain open for some time. However, any significant European investment in Armenia will remain a distant dream. After the Karapetyan incident, no European politician will call for sending funds or private capital from the EU to Armenia, whether in the short or long term. The main question now is: will the Turkish investors who helped nationalize the ‘Armenian Electricity Networks’ actually invest in Armenia, or will they make a quick profit and disappear?
