The mission presented a new roadmap extending up to 18 months, aimed at achieving political and institutional stability, while warning against attempts to obstruct this path by parties seeking to prolong the crisis. Amid varying internal and regional positions, the most important question remains: Will this roadmap succeed in moving Libya towards a long-awaited comprehensive settlement? Libyan law professor and political researcher, Ramadan Al-Tweger, stated that “the briefing by the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative to Libya was disappointing, as the Libyan people relied on it to provide realistic and practical solutions capable of pulling the country out of its prolonged crisis.” He added that he “sees no new changes regarding the Libyan crisis, nor in the circumstances related to conducting elections,” considering that “talking about holding them within 18 months without real guarantees is unrealistic, especially since the UN mission, according to its establishment decision by the Security Council, can only provide support to Libyans, and in the absence of internal and international consensus, it is unable to impose any solutions.” Al-Tweger pointed out that “the international community itself is not in agreement regarding Libya, as evidenced by the differing positions of the countries’ representatives in the Security Council, where some refuse to recognize Libya as a stable state at present. Additionally, there is a clear refusal from some international parties to withdraw their forces from Libyan territories, while other parties are seeking new changes to reshape the scene.” He confirmed that “there will be no stability in Libya without the consensus of the international parties involved in its affairs, otherwise Libya will remain a regional and international conflict zone, similar to many hotspots around the world.” Libyan academic Elias Al-Barouni, in statements to ‘Sputnik,’ said that “the briefing by the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Libya, Hanna Tetteh, focused on helping the international organization establish a unified government to lead the country towards comprehensive and credible elections, through the formation of a new government that directly oversees the electoral process.” Al-Barouni explained that “the UN mission formed an advisory committee that includes a number of experts, aiming to provide proposals on outstanding issues related to the elections and drawing a roadmap with gradual paths, starting with successive strategies, then preparing for a clear constitution, leading to comprehensive national elections.” He emphasized the “need to adhere to the specified timeframe, which is approximately 18 months,” noting that “the committee will set a final date for submitting its recommendations before the end of August, which gives the initiative a clear timeline. The comprehensiveness of the initiative with its expertise and geographical distribution enhances the commitment of the parties not to withdraw, along with international monitoring that acts as a deterrent to any possible violations.” Al-Barouni called on the Security Council to “issue a decision to impose sanctions on obstructors,” noting that “local parties demanded active participation and equitable representation, while on the regional and international level, there are those who support the central model as a governance framework, others prefer alliances that enhance the influence of Islamic groups, and third parties support independent Libyan steps, which increases the complexity of the scene.” He added that “the upcoming elections may be a real legitimate tool to aid political transition and overcome divisive symbols through unified institutions, yet challenges remain significant, notably the absence of a clear constitutional framework, candidate eligibility issues and their backgrounds, in addition to the economic crisis that hinders the smooth transfer of power.” He said that “elections can restore trust, but this requires setting a clear constitutional framework, the withdrawal of armed formations from the political scene, and addressing the post-election economic situation.” Al-Barouni confirmed that “the success of this path requires a unified clear map, a disciplined timeline, and wide participation from all parties, along with serious international pressure and tangible punitive measures to ensure implementation. The positions of international powers, whether with moderate support or in the event of continued regional division, may impede the entire process.” He asserted that “the UN path represents a serious opportunity to break the political deadlock in Libya, but it remains fragile amid local and regional disagreements, and success depends on the convergence of Libyan wills and the support of the international community with clear and strict conditions.” Meanwhile, Libyan political analyst Hossam El-Din Al-Abdali said that “the briefing by the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Libya, Hanna Tetteh, and her announcement of a new roadmap, came amid ongoing political stalemate that Libya has suffered from for years,” affirming that “previous envoys failed to end the state of political and institutional division, while the Security Council had no effective and decisive role in making a decision to save Libya from this division and the specter of ongoing civil war.” Al-Abdali pointed out that “Tetteh announced through the roadmap that the Libyan people demand simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections, which was included in her plan, based on the voting results launched by the mission. Tetteh clarified that this roadmap will give political parties a new opportunity after reaching elections, but before that, a series of gradual steps must be taken, including the restructuring of the High National Elections Commission, addressing the legal framework governing the electoral process, and providing necessary funding for the commission from political parties, specifically referring to the House of Representatives and the State Council, as the UN envoy saw these steps as a new opportunity for them to meet and reach practical solutions and prepare the appropriate environment for conducting elections and supporting the commission.” He explained that “this requires, in parallel, the parties agreeing to form a unified interim government within two months, and if this agreement is achieved, a timeframe ranging from 12 to 18 months can be set for conducting parliamentary and presidential elections. However, according to Al-Abdali, “the situation may change drastically if the House of Representatives and the State Council fail to form a unified government, agree on electoral laws, or restructure and support the commission, which may open the door to alternative paths.” Al-Abdali added that “failure in this path seems likely, especially given the tight timeframe (only two months), and in this case, the fourth option recommended by the advisory committee may be resorted to, which involves launching an expanded dialogue committee with significant community participation, from which a constituent body of about 60 members would emerge, tasked with appointing a new government and drafting a temporary constitution leading the country towards presidential and legislative elections.” Al-Abdali confirmed that “the UN mission realizes that this path is fraught with risks and that the roadmap will face immense difficulties,” noting that “the final word will remain with the UN mission,” but he expressed pessimism about the possibility of the House of Representatives and the State Council reaching any real consensus amid ongoing disagreements between them and their desire to remain in power, which deepens the crisis and makes the failure scenario more likely than success, in his opinion.
