In contrast, Algeria expressed its categorical rejection before the International Court of Justice. A statement from the ministry, issued yesterday, Friday, clarified that the Malian government had announced on September 4th the filing of a petition against Algeria, before the International Court of Justice confirmed on September 16th that it had received this petition. The same source added that the Minister of State, Minister of Foreign Affairs and the National Community Abroad and African Affairs, had denied Malian allegations at a press conference on September 13th, emphasizing that Algeria “respects international law and holds deep appreciation for the International Court of Justice.” Mali had accused Algeria of shooting down a drone belonging to the Malian army in early April, stating that the drone was shot down over Malian territory, violating its airspace, while Algeria confirmed that radar data from the Ministry of Defense “clearly proves the drone violated Algerian airspace.” What are the implications of the escalation? Regarding the implications of the escalation, Algerian parliamentarian Moussa Kharfi said that the three Sahel countries (Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso) are not among Algeria’s largest trading partners in terms of total volume compared to Europe or China, so Algeria’s major exports might remain limited. He explained that there is a significant indirect impact as the deterioration in security stability raises insurance risks, increases transportation costs, and slows down foreign investments in the region. There might also be a willingness to reduce cooperation with Algeria on certain files, which could affect existing contracts and services. Will the “Gas Pipeline” project be affected? Regarding the impact of the conflict on the trans-Saharan gas pipeline project, Kharfi pointed out that it depends on the political understanding between the three countries (Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria) and the security stability along the route through Niger. He noted that in early 2025, agreements were accelerated to enhance the feasibility study, but in the following months, news emerged that Niger might have “distanced itself” or shown less enthusiasm for the project. Furthermore, the safety factor and the pipeline’s passage through areas with armed groups increase protection costs and make investors demand strong guarantees. Meanwhile, Algerian security expert Akram Khraif stated that it is primarily related to the internal affairs in Mali. Conflict Background Khraif added, in a statement to “Sputnik,” that these tensions arose as a result of Mali’s withdrawal from the Algeria peace agreements, under which the Malian government considered all political and armed groups as terrorist groups, including Tuareg groups and secessionist groups in the north that had been engaged in negotiations with it for several years. Mutual Benefit He believes that the Sahel countries’ coalition, which has varying relations with Algeria, might have an effect, but it is a side effect and not very significant. Regarding the impact of these tensions on the gas pipeline project, Khraif downplays the likelihood of major repercussions, especially since the benefits are favorable and substantial, while the latter stands to benefit the most from this project given its importance to the Nigerian economy, which is among the weakest in the world. The incident of the plane being shot down led to a diplomatic crisis between the neighboring countries, as Mali and its allies Niger and Burkina Faso recalled their ambassadors from Algeria, which in turn announced recalling its ambassadors in Mali and Niger, amid escalating tensions between the four countries. Slow Movements According to experts, the tensions could extend, especially in the absence of noticeable progress in the project, after the approval of a roadmap for the gas pipeline by representatives of the countries it will pass through to Europe, namely Niger, Algeria, and Nigeria, was announced on February 18th, 2022. In July 2022, Algeria signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigeria and Niger to conduct a feasibility study and deepen studies to implement the trans-Saharan gas pipeline project. The trans-Saharan gas pipeline project connects the three countries with a total length of 4,128 kilometers, including 1,037 kilometers within Nigerian territory, 841 kilometers in Niger, and 2,310 kilometers in Algeria.
