Gold prices are anticipated to maintain an upward trajectory driven by robust demand from investors and end-users amid geopolitical uncertainties, economic instability in key economies, and an expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) later this month, according to experts.
Market analysts predict that gold could surpass $5,000 per ounce by the end of the first quarter of 2026 as global investors seek safety amid increasing geopolitical and economic instability. Nigel Green, CEO of the global financial advisory firm deVere Group, noted that gold’s climb to record levels highlights the significant unease among investors.
“We currently forecast the price to reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of the first quarter of 2026. The factors driving this are already established, and momentum is building,” Green told BTR.
On Monday, during the early Asian session, gold extended its rally, reaching near $3,590. The precious metal is nearing an all-time high, bolstered by weak US jobs data that reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut later this month.
Gold is trading at its highest levels ever, supported by anticipated US interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and unprecedented central bank demand. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut this month, as the US labor market softens and recession risks grow. Lower rates make cash deposits and government bonds less appealing while supporting bullion.
“Each rate cut reduces the appeal of cash and bonds, positioning gold as the prime alternative,” remarked the deVere CEO.
“With inflation still above target and government debt rising at a record pace, investors are looking for a store of value that doesn’t rely on political assurances.”
US data is crucial
Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com – Mena, stated that gold continued its impressive rise, nearing the $3,590 mark during early Asian trading on Monday, on a bullish path approaching its all-time highs.
“This movement is a direct response to recent US data, notably the nonfarm payroll report, which showed a significant slowdown in August hiring and a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest since 2021. This, in my opinion, signals a weakening US labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy at its next meeting, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and increasing its appeal as a safe-haven,” Gule told BTR.
Limited supply
On the supply front, Green pointed out that constraints are deeply rooted. Global mine output has stagnated, discoveries are becoming more scarce, and environmental costs are escalating.
“When overwhelming demand meets stagnant supply, the price can only go one way. This imbalance won’t be resolved quickly, which is why we anticipate gold’s path to remain sharply upward,” he stated.
“Gold thrives in environments where governments seem unpredictable,” Green added.
“Attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, erratic trade policies, and spiraling deficits undermine confidence in fiat currencies. Investors respond by turning to politically neutral, globally recognized assets. Gold reflects today’s reality of high debt, unstable currencies, and structural inflation,” he concluded.
As the new week commences, Gule noted that gold is showing signs of upward consolidation just below the $3,600 mark, the record high reached last Friday. Despite a slight rebound in the US dollar from its lowest levels since late July, the current fluctuations reflect anticipation among traders ahead of upcoming US inflation data, which could directly impact monetary policy expectations.
“In this scenario, gold remains sensitive to dollar movements: any substantial strengthening of the US currency could pressure the metal, while a weaker dollar would support further gains,” she explained.
