Although the probability of asteroid “2024 YR4” colliding with the moon is only 4%, such an event could produce a massive debris cloud that increases the number of micrometeoroids heading towards Earth by a thousand times the normal rate for a few days. This poses a threat to satellites and astronauts in orbit. According to a recent study published by “ScienceAlert”, humanity has two options to deal with the asteroid if its trajectory is confirmed. The first option is to alter its orbit to avoid collision, which requires precise knowledge of its mass and may necessitate a reconnaissance mission by 2028. The second option is to destroy the asteroid, either by direct impact with a large object to break it apart or by using a nuclear explosion in space at a calculated altitude. A nuclear bomb with a yield of one megaton could be sufficient to disable it, but this option raises political and technical debates.
Researchers indicated that any defensive mission should be launched between 2030 and 2032, a relatively narrow time window. NASA has also studied the possibility of redirecting current missions, such as “OSIRIS-APEX”, towards the asteroid at the expense of their original goals. Despite the low likelihood of moon collision, scientists warned against ignoring the threat, emphasizing that early action is safer and less costly. They also highlighted that the final decision on using technology, including nuclear options, remains as political as it is scientific.
