Airbus sales chief John Leahy noted that air travel demand is set to triple as the global middle class expands to 5 billion. However, Airbus adjusted its annual air traffic growth forecast to 4.4%, down from 4.5%, reflecting a cautious outlook for the Americas while expecting growth in the Middle East despite Gulf tensions.
Even with reduced growth rates, Airbus anticipates increased traffic and deliveries due to tourism, liberalization, and rising private consumption. Leahy described this as “the tyranny of large numbers,” suggesting the forecast might be conservative.
As the world’s fleet surpasses 40,000 jets by 2036, Airbus, the second-largest planemaker after Boeing, foresees a boom in repair, training, and upgrades, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, including 530,000 pilots and 550,000 maintenance engineers.
The 20-year forecast for airplane deliveries increased to 733 freighters, up from 33,070 aircraft, including strong deliveries. Demand will focus on narrow-body jets like the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, driven by low-cost airlines, with Airbus expecting 24,807 deliveries worth $2.4 trillion.
Leahy highlighted the potential for budget carriers to capture half the market and endorsed their long-haul ambitions, stating, “Low-cost long-haul will work.” Airbus increased its forecast for small twin-aisle aircraft while reducing expectations for very large planes like the A380 superjumbo due to weak demand.
A competition is brewing in the 220-270-seat segment as Boeing plans a mid-market wide-body jet, which Leahy dismissed as reminiscent of an unsuccessful Airbus model. Airbus promotes its A321neo narrowbody for missions targeted by Boeing’s proposed jet.
Despite a decreased forecast for 1,184 A380s, Leahy believes the large jet will prove essential as traffic and congestion necessitate bulk travel. Boeing argues this segment is declining, favoring smaller, efficient twin-engine planes.
Airbus COO Fabrice Bregier mentioned potential improvements to the A380, like vertical wingtips, to reduce costs. Aircraft demand and engine advancements have caused bottlenecks, and Bregier warned suppliers of potential boycotts for not meeting standards.
Airbus confirmed its goal of over 700 deliveries in 2017, with a higher target of 720 also achievable, according to the finance chief.
