Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national alliance is bracing for a challenging regional election next month in Bihar, where issues like youth unemployment and distrust over voter rolls could jeopardize his coalition’s stability, which depends on regional partners.
Bihar, located in eastern India, ranks among the nation’s poorest and is the third most populous state with over 130 million residents. Its chief minister, Nitish Kumar, has previously allied with Modi and the opposition but is currently a crucial partner in Modi’s National Democratic Alliance.
This state is part of a politically vital heartland, and any fractures within the NDA in the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar could endanger Modi’s coalition, especially with subsequent elections looming in Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu. Modi’s national alliance holds 293 of 543 Parliament seats, with its strongest support base in Assam.
WOMEN AS INFLUENTIAL VOTERS IN CLOSE RACE
The Vote Vibe agency reported that its Bihar opinion poll shows the NDA holding a narrow 1.6 percentage point lead over the opposition coalition, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress party, as of October 8.
“This election is highly unpredictable,” the agency noted, attributing the NDA’s slight advantage to recent initiatives like monetary transfers to 12.1 million women through a self-employment subsidy totaling over 121 billion rupees ($1.37 billion).
Nivedita Jha, an activist in Bihar’s capital, Patna, emphasized that women will be a decisive voting bloc since many men leave Bihar for employment in cities like Mumbai and New Delhi and do not always return to vote.
“Women make the decisions because the men are away,” she explained. “They discuss the opposition’s promises of more financial aid, and I believe they have greater trust in the opposition.”
Other voters in Bihar are frustrated with the revised voter list. For example, 85-year-old Jitni Devi was removed from the list, losing her voting rights and pension access.
“They declared me deceased,” she told Reuters. “Villagers tease me as a dead woman, and bank officials dismiss me when I try to withdraw money.”
The state election commission did not respond to inquiries about Devi’s situation. The federal election body has stated that all complaints are thoroughly investigated.
YOUTH FRUSTRATION OVER JOBS
Despite a declining unemployment rate, young voters in Bihar remain concerned about job availability. Government data indicates that unemployment among those aged 15-29 dropped to 9.9% in 2023–24 from 30.9% in 2018–19, but worries persist.
“I’ve seen my father leave Bihar for work, so jobs are my top priority,” said Babloo Kumar, 25, who will vote for the first time in November.
A new political party, Jan Suraaj, founded by Prashant Kishor, Modi’s former campaign strategist, seeks to reshape Bihar’s political landscape.
“Joblessness, migration, rising debts, and declining agricultural revenue are pressing issues,” stated the party’s national president, Uday Singh. “Modi’s popularity is waning here.”
The opposition has vowed to enact a law ensuring at least one government job per family, if desired.
However, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party remains confident of success.
“The NDA alliance is in a robust position,” said BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan. “People have strong faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision.”
Voting is scheduled for November 6 and 11 across 243 state assembly seats, with results announced on November 14.
