The fault line connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea is exhibiting an unsettling pattern, according to a study published in ‘Science’ last Thursday. The study revealed an increase in earthquake intensity in the region over the past two decades, with a steady movement towards the east. According to the analysis, strong earthquakes are currently heading towards a closed area measuring between 15 and 21 kilometers in length, scientifically known as the ‘Main Marmara Fault.’ This fault lies beneath the sea surface southwest of Istanbul and has not experienced significant seismic activity since the 1766 earthquake, which had a magnitude of 7.1.
The report indicated that if the current seismic pattern continues and a rupture occurs at the Main Marmara Fault, Istanbul could experience an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or more. The study also observed a notable sequence of four moderate earthquakes, the latest being a magnitude 6.2 earthquake in April 2025, occurring directly east of the fault line.
While some scientists do not rule out the possibility that this sequence is merely coincidental, there is a growing scientific consensus about the potential for a ‘coming devastating earthquake’ due to pressure buildup on the North Anatolian Fault. Seismologist Patricia Martinez-Garzon, who participated in the study, emphasized that efforts should focus on early detection of any unusual signals and mitigating potential impacts, while stressing that earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision.
This warning comes amidst Turkey’s painful history with earthquakes, the most recent being in February 2023, when two strong earthquakes struck southern Turkey and Syria, resulting in at least 55,000 deaths.
