According to a statement issued by the Somali Federal Government, the discussions focused on enhancing cooperation between the two neighboring countries, emphasizing the importance of non-interference and respecting each country’s independence and territorial integrity. The statement added, “The President and the Prime Minister discussed deepening bilateral relations, encouraging cooperation based on good neighborliness and mutual respect, in line with shared interests, sovereignty, and unity of the two countries,” as reported by “New Somalia.” The talks also addressed regional security issues, particularly where the leaders expressed their commitment to coordinated regional operations aimed at ensuring peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
This meeting comes amid reports of political developments in the Gedo region of Jubaland State in southern Somalia, where discussions about potential administrative changes have taken place in recent days. Can Somalia play a role in the Horn of Africa at this stage despite its internal problems after improving its relations with Ethiopia? Former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister Salah Halima commented, “I believe that Somalia, given its current developments, is not in a position to play an influential role in the Horn of Africa, as some suggest, following improved relations with Addis Ababa and repeated meetings.”
Halima further stated, “It is not plausible to rely on Somalia’s role in the Horn of Africa due to the complex and intertwined regional and international situations, and Somalia still faces numerous internal challenges such as the Al-Shabaab movement and the relationship between local governments and the federal government.” Regarding Somalia’s potential role as a mediator in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis, Halima asserted, “Somalia cannot play a role in this crisis, which requires significant efforts. There is talk about international intervention, including U.S. President Trump, to find a solution. We witnessed Sudan’s Sovereign Council President Al-Burhan visiting Egypt, and there are reports of an upcoming meeting of the international quartet in Washington to discuss issues of the Horn of Africa and the Sudanese crisis, advocating for comprehensive Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue.”
Halima added, “Currently discussing Somalia’s role is a kind of obscuring reality, as Somalia needs internal healing with the support of its brothers, and making predictions based solely on meetings between Somalia and Ethiopia is unrealistic. Somalia is moving towards stability and rebuilding the state, but this won’t happen overnight.” He emphasized, “African countries are not in a position to play a role in the crisis, as Ethiopia itself refuses mediation despite it being included in the tenth article of the Declaration of Principles, which was signed. The proposed paths for resolving the Renaissance Dam crisis involve Ethiopia reconsidering its position based on international law, agreements, and relevant treaties, or involving the American mediator, or addressing the United Nations and the Security Council. A third memorandum has already been sent to the Security Council, and Ethiopia has responded. In this case, the matter will be addressed within the framework of chapters six and seven of the charter.”
Halima noted that “Egypt insists on maintaining the peaceful path, while not hesitating to defend its national interests and historical share of the Nile waters.” Somali political analyst Omar Mohamed stated, “The crises of the Horn of Africa are deep and complex, and improving relations between two states or signing cooperation agreements among a group of states does not provide reassurance. The Somali situation is even more complex and obscure.” He further explained, “Despite this, improved relations contribute to reducing regional tensions, but for Somalia to mediate major regional crises like the Renaissance Dam, it requires other factors such as Somalia’s ability to ensure the implementation and oversight of mediation efforts, which requires many mechanisms, powers, and authorities that may not currently be available in Somalia.”
Mohamed remarked, “Indeed, Somalia is gradually regaining its full sovereignty and regional role, having been relieved of debt, lifted from a 30-year arms embargo, joined the UN Security Council, and regained full and independent management of its human rights dossier. Nevertheless, I see Somalia’s role as more ceremonial, preparing the environment for negotiations between countries, encouraging peaceful conflict resolution without pressuring them into binding agreements.” Meanwhile, linked to Al-Qaeda (a terrorist organization banned in Russia and several countries), continues coordinated attacks against government forces. In the “Bay” area near the town of Burhakabo, the movement carried out a bloody attack that began with suicide car bombings followed by heavy gunfire lasting hours, resulting in casualties on both sides. The group claimed responsibility for the operation, stating that its target was the troops stationed in the town.
The Somali army recently announced a planned operation targeting sites where militia elements are entrenched in the western Bay region of southern Somalia. In 2022, the Somali government and allied forces launched a campaign to expel the Al-Shabaab movement, linked to the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda (banned in Russia and several countries), from some areas in the central part of the country. However, the movement continues to carry out significant attacks.
