Al-Mashat stated that ending aggression, blockade, and occupation, and implementing peace entitlements is the closest solution to thwart those who invest in wars between the sons of our nation in service of ‘Israel’. Will Al-Mashat’s invitation be accepted by Saudi Arabia, and what is new this time after the cessation of fighting in the Gaza Strip and the unofficial truce with Riyadh over the past three years? Does the timing of the invitation carry messages for the future situation in Yemen?
Saudi military expert, Major General Abdullah Ghanem Al-Qahtani, says that the speech from the Houthis (Ansar Allah) inviting Saudi Arabia does not bring any closeness or distance. The truth that Al-Mashat and others should acknowledge is that the international community no longer wants militias that hijack countries. He added in his talk: ‘Saudi Arabia is not an enemy to Yemen at all, nor is it an enemy to the Houthis. The problem is the hijacking of a state and attempting to hand it over to a foreign state in the region, which is the disagreement. Hence, we are currently in a different situation. It is not only the Gulf Cooperation Council or Arab Egypt that wants the absence of militias, but the entire international community does not want militias leading and hijacking countries, collaborating with foreign countries, smuggling weapons, and launching drones and missiles. This is a UN and international demand that the Houthis must realize.’
Al-Qahtani continued, ‘Saudi Arabia has not attacked Yemen. Saudi Arabia stands with Yemen, its government, and its people. Houthis, being a component of Yemenis, must return to their core. Here, we pose a question: What is the opinion of Yemenis about the current authority in Sana’a? Is it accepted? Is it recognized internationally? Does it have diplomatic and political representation in the world? Does it have embassies in global countries? The answer is no. Therefore, there is no state in the real sense in Yemen, and there is no legitimate authority in Sana’a. Al-Mashat and his colleagues should consider their interests and the interests of their countrymen.’
The military expert continued, ‘As for theorizing to others and the slogans of Palestine, the situation does not need explanation. The slogans of Palestine and those who raised them have all turned out to be the ones who betrayed it, destroyed it, and attacked it. The situation now requires a region free of militias, free of terrorist drones, and free of missiles hitting Arab capitals unjustly, even hitting Palestinians unjustly. This is all rejected by the international community.’
Al-Qahtani pointed out that Saudi Arabia always cares about Yemen and stands by it. The Yemeni legitimacy and people support Saudi Arabia’s steps and call for cooperation, more support, and further efforts for Yemen’s independence. Al-Mashat’s remarks reflect a history that renews without meaning. No one will listen, neither inside nor outside. Israel and Palestine slogans have become exposed.’
The military expert clarified, ‘The near perspective is that the world does not want to see militias hijacking countries. They should disappear from the region. This is not only Saudi Arabia’s demand, but the entire international community, including the five permanent members of the Security Council, say this. All organizations and charters say this. Therefore, I do not see hope for militias to remain in any country, no matter what. They are not stronger than Hezbollah in Lebanon, not stronger than the Iranian revolution, and not stronger than the Iraqi militias or the Hamas organization that was meters away from Israel. All of these have realized that the path they were on was a path to violence and tearing apart Arab countries. The proof is that Yemen is currently in a miserable situation.’
Dr. Abdul Sattar Al-Shumairi, head of the Efforts Center for Studies in Yemen, says, ‘I believe there is no real readiness for a peace process in Yemen due to the complexities of the military situation and the different vision of more than one party regarding the shape of peace. Also, because the international and regional community now sees that ending the Houthi group is the best way, as it started to pose a risk, even if it pauses temporarily, it will resume.’
He added, ‘The peace proposals will remain suspended until there is some military operation against the Houthis. Perhaps at the last moment when they feel they have lost most of their major military power, especially missiles, then there might be talks this year or next.’
Al-Shumairi stated, ‘I think there will not be peace without war, maybe a peace process will follow. The Houthis’ statements may see that the time is not right to remain alone in skirmishes after Iran entered negotiations and after the Gaza issue was resolved. The process might be more tactical than a real concession for a peace process in Yemen.’
In contrast, Yemeni political analyst Akram Al-Haj from the capital Sana’a says, ‘It is in the interest of all parties, given that our Arab region has been living on a hot plate for those years. Therefore, I see that the media or rhetorical escalation in this stage is nothing but a maneuver to stir stagnant waters and create new events related to the Yemeni file and removing it from the state it has been in for a while, which is the state of no peace and no war.’
He added, ‘These news movements talking about new escalation might primarily aim to direct the media and draw attention towards Sana’a’s stance and its support for the resistance in the Gaza Strip. This position certainly does not appeal to many Arab capitals and is considered within the real bargaining files, whether a political or military maneuver.’
Al-Haj stated, ‘The situation in Yemen has become more complicated, and the years of truce and the state of no peace and no war have prolonged. I believe something is going on behind the scenes that the media and many politicians do not see because it is not announced. Despite this, we see that there is real tension between Riyadh and Sana’a and escalation that is only understood by those involved, whether in Sana’a or Riyadh.’
Al-Haj ruled out that ‘the state of tension between Sana’a and Riyadh would return to the stage before the truce three years ago. Anyone following the Yemeni affair clearly sees that there is a collapse in the economic situation in areas managed by legitimacy, and they cannot even provide electricity for the residents, and prices are very high. But in recent days, there have been economic transformations in areas of legitimacy, and the Yemeni rial has risen against the dollar. There are movements between the Sana’a Bank and the Aden Bank. When we talk about Aden, we are talking about the role of Saudi Arabia and the Arab coalition, which continues to speak about its support for legitimacy, which means that there is someone managing the strings of the game as they want, not as the Yemenis want.’
The ‘Ansar Allah’ group has controlled the majority of provinces in central and northern Yemen, including the capital Sana’a, since September 2014. Meanwhile, an Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia launched military operations on March 26, 2015, in support of regaining those areas from the group’s grip.
