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02.09.2025

India’s Economic Outlook Amid Tariffs and Reforms

Illustration for: India's Economic Outlook Amid Tariffs and Reforms

Question: With the imposition of high tariffs on Indian goods exported to the U.S., is there a risk of India’s international credit rating being affected, potentially harming the economy?

ANSWER: A leading rating agency has upgraded India’s sovereign rating to BBB after 18 years. This agency acknowledges that India remains one of the world’s top-performing economies, recovering impressively from the pandemic, with GDP growth averaging 6.8% from 2022 to 2024. They project continued growth, with the GDP increasing by about 6.3% annually over the next three years, helping stabilize the government debt-to-GDP ratio. Another agency has already rated India BBB+/Stable.

The upgrade is attributed partly to the fiscal consolidation achieved in recent years. This change is expected to boost investor confidence, as a BBB rating signifies a strong ability to meet financial obligations. Rating agencies believe India’s robust economic expansion positively impacts its credit metrics and that solid fundamentals will drive growth over the next three years. The upgrade should reduce borrowing costs for quasi-sovereign entities and corporations, elevate India to investment grade, and attract more foreign capital inflows.

Question: The government has pledged to decriminalize certain offences under various laws. What progress has been made? Are intellectual property laws being simplified?

ANSWER: India’s Commerce Ministry recently announced efforts to identify about 1,000 provisions with severe penalties for offences. Previously, several fiscal law provisions were amended to decriminalize them. Regarding intellectual property laws, the government has sought stakeholder feedback for simplification. Based on this input, amendments are promised to make the laws more user-friendly, aiming to enhance India’s IP framework for innovation.

The government aims to emphasize data exclusivity, attracting significant R&D investments and establishing Global Technology Centres. The UK and Switzerland have included IP chapters in recent trade agreements to bolster patent laws. Thus, India is taking steps to protect intellectual property rights and foster a sustainable R&D ecosystem.

Question: Foreign investors have hesitated to invest in India due to regulatory hurdles and trading anomalies. Are these being addressed?

ANSWER: Last month, SEBI’s annual report noted plans to streamline regulations for foreign investors to encourage long-term investments in India. Proposed measures include single-window clearance and market access for overseas investors like sovereign wealth funds. This is expected to enhance foreign participation in long-term assets. SEBI aims to reduce compliance burdens by eliminating regulatory redundancies.

Previously, SEBI suggested measures for quick shareholder approval of low-value related-party transactions. Steps are also in place to strengthen monitoring to prevent derivatives trading manipulation. Concerns were raised about high trading activity in index options on expiry day, with 90% occurring then. The report also mentioned plans to enhance cyber security to mitigate investor risks.

The author is a practicing lawyer specializing in corporate and fiscal laws of India.